Medicinal Cannabis: The Natural Selection of the Brazilian Market

I'll be straightforward: the Brazilian medicinal cannabis market is entering its most Darwinian phase. We have over 500 companies fighting for the same patients, average ticket falling by 7% even as the market grows by 22%, and a price pressure that has turned into a race to the bottom. There's no point in deluding oneself — it's not about growing more, it's about surviving until regulation finally gets it right.

The reality is that most of these companies won't make it past the next two years. It's kind of like that football situation — everyone wants to play, but not everyone has the structure to endure a whole season. The difference is that there's no relegation here, it's straight-up closure.

The Current Scenario: Temporary Red Sea

Look, I've been through unregulated markets before, and I can guarantee you: this "red sea" we're living in today is temporary. The RDC 660 created a model that worked to democratize access, but it has turned into an unsustainable price war. When you have 500 players doing the same thing — facilitating imports — the only remaining differential is price. Competing solely on price is business suicide.

The proposed revision of RDC 327 will accelerate this process. White prescription for products with less than 0.2% THC means that 80% of RDC 660 patients can migrate to pharmacies. It's like pulling the rug out from under those on top of it.

Natural Selection in Action

We're already seeing the signs. Companies that thought it would be easy are leaving. Those who bet solely on volume are going bankrupt. And those focused only on price will be next, because there will always be someone willing to operate at break-even.

I'll tell you something: in the last six months, I've received at least 15 calls from entrepreneurs looking to sell their business or seeking mergers. People are realizing that you can't sustain negative margins hoping that volume will make up for it.

Who Will Survive: The Darwinian Criteria

The companies that will make it through this phase have some specific characteristics:

Impeccable Compliance: There's no use improvising with regulation. Those without structured compliance will be eliminated at the first, stricter inspection. It's like building a house without a foundation — it holds up for a while, but when a heavy rain comes, it collapses.

Real Niche: Saying you'll focus on "differentiated service" is not a niche. A niche is when you serve pediatric patients with refractory epilepsy and no other company can replicate your protocol. It's specialization that becomes a natural entry barrier.

War Chest: The Darwinian phase doesn't forgive those on the brink of cash flow. Companies that managed to save resources in the last two years have the ammunition to withstand consolidation and even make strategic acquisitions.

Medical Relationships: It's not about having a list of partner doctors. It's about being the first call the neurologist makes when they have a complex case. This is built through years of serious work.

The Blue Ocean Post-Regulation

The question isn't if regulation will consolidate, but when. And when it does — whether with approved national cultivation or simplified RDC 327 — the market will completely reconfigure.

The companies that survive the Darwinian phase will face a blue ocean ahead. Fewer competitors, clearer rules, more educated patients, and more confident prescribers. It's like coming out of a war and entering a peaceful economy — those with structure will make much better use of it.

For example, when national cultivation is approved, those with established relationships with doctors and patients will be able to transition to national products without losing their base. Those who compete solely on price will find that national products will be even cheaper, and then there will be nowhere to run.

The Survival Strategy

The reality is that the strategy now is defensive. Cut unnecessary costs, focus on what works, stop burning money on marketing that doesn't convert.

We have to understand that accelerated growth at this moment can be more dangerous than controlled growth. It's better to have a smaller but sustainable company than a large operation that goes bankrupt at the first turbulence.