Shortage on the horizon: how the American crisis will accelerate the natural selection of the Brazilian market

The American hemp industry just imploded. 

In November 2025, the US Congress passed H.R. 5371, a law that eliminates 95% of the cannabinoid market — a $28 billion industry. And before you think "their problem," I need to tell you: this will hit Brazil full force in the next 12 months.

In my last article, I talked about the natural selection of the Brazilian medicinal cannabis market — 500 companies competing, average ticket falling by 7%, race to the bottom of the price. The lingering question was: "when the music stops, who will have a chair to sit on?"

Now the music is stopping faster than we expected. And not because of Brazilian regulation — but because of the collapse of our international supply chain.

The External Shock Nobody Calculated

Here's the problem: the vast majority of medicinal cannabis products imported to Brazil via RDC 660 come from the United States. Reports from Anvisa itself point to the US as the "main supplier," leaving other markets like Canada, Colombia, and Uruguay in secondary positions. Full-spectrum CBD oils, tinctures, capsules — everything Brazilian patients buy today depends on American manufacturers.

H.R. 5371 doesn't just ban psychoactive products like Delta-8. It sets such a low limit (0.4 milligrams of total THC per package) that it makes it illegal to manufacture over 90% of the non-psychoactive CBD products on the American market today.

The math is simple: a typical 30ml bottle of full-spectrum oil was allowed up to 3mg of Delta-9 THC under the old law. The new law allows only 0.4mg of Total THC (including THCA) per bottle — an 87.5% reduction. Any oil extracted from the whole plant naturally contains traces of THCA that, when added up, exceed this limit. It is mathematically impossible to make full-spectrum within this rule.

It's crucial to understand: the American law wasn't targeting CBD, but it killed it as collateral damage. This limit, created to ban psychoactive products, is so restrictive that it sweeps away almost the entire market of full-spectrum CBD that Brazilian patients seek for the entourage effect. 

Translating: as of November 2026, the source has dried up.

It's not a matter of "it might run out". It will run out. And Brazilian companies that rely exclusively on imports from the US will find out, in the worst possible way, what it means to have a business model based on a single geographical origin subject to the political whims of another country.

The Current Model's Strategic Vulnerability

I'll be straightforward: the Brazilian medicinal cannabis market has built its entire operation on quicksand. RDC 660 created an ecosystem where hundreds of companies are doing exactly the same thing — facilitating imports. The differentiator? None. The only game left was price.

And now, when we need supply chain resilience the most, we discover that almost 100% of hemp derivatives in Brazil are imported. Zero self-sufficiency. Zero control over the chain. Zero protection against external shocks.

In the last six months, I've received at least 15 calls from entrepreneurs wanting to sell their business or seeking mergers. This number will triple in 2026 when the shortage truly begins.

The Darwinian phase I described in the previous article? It just entered accelerated mode.

Who Will Break First

The companies most vulnerable to this shock are predictable:

1. Pure Import Facilitators
If your business is only to mediate patient orders with American suppliers, you have a lifespan of 365 days. When US manufacturers stop producing (because they will be illegal), you have no product to sell. It's that simple.

2. Those Competing Solely on Price
If your only competitive advantage is "we charge $50 less than the competitor," you were already dead before this crisis. With shortages, the remaining products will increase in price, not decrease. How will you compete then?

3. Companies Without Cash Reserves
The transition phase to new suppliers will require capital. Approval of new products, quality tests, certifications, different logistics. Those operating on the cash flow limit won't withstand this transition.

The Darwinian Adaptation: Three Strategic Moves

The companies that will survive — and thrive — in this crisis are those already making three moves now:

Move 1: Geographical Diversification with GMP Standard

Stop depending 100% on the US. Start yesterday to approve suppliers in Canada, Colombia, and Israel. But not just any supplier — smart companies are seeking suppliers in jurisdictions with consolidated GMP (Good Manufacturing Practices) regulations, which can guarantee the input under the standards required by Anvisa, eliminating the regulatory risk of the American "legal fiction."

Yes, it's more expensive. Yes, it's more complex. But it's the difference between having a product that passes Anvisa certification in 2027 or having no product at all.

Move 2: Bulk API Import and Inverted Vertical Integration

Those with capital are pivoting to importing Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) in bulk. This strategy allows formulation, packaging, and quality control in Brazil, which is the true vertical integration under RDC 327.

This tactic will reduce the final cost and gain scale, taking advantage of Anvisa's recent authorization for the manufacture of Cannabis Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) in the country. When national cultivation is regulated (and it will be, the American crisis accelerated this agenda), those already with pharmaceutical manufacturing structure in Brazil will be ahead.

Move 3: Strengthening Social Access

Patient associations (ABRACE, AMA+ME) with judicial authorization represent a crucial mechanism for subsidized access. They exist to cover the gap left by the high cost of formal import routes.

Although they do not operate under the GMP standards required by RDC 327, their strength lies in ensuring equity in access and exerting judicial pressure for a national cultivation solution. For patients, they are a concrete alternative when shortages tighten.

The Cascade Effect: Pharmacies, Doctors, and Patients

This crisis doesn't just affect import companies. The cascade effect will be brutal:
Pharmacies: The revised RDC 327 will allow products with less than 0.2% THC to be sold with a white prescription in pharmacies. But if there's no product to import, having authorization to sell is pointless.

Doctors: Prescribers who were gaining confidence to prescribe cannabis will face patients without access to products. This could create a setback in the medical adoption curve just when it was taking off.

Patients: Tens of thousands of people depending on these treatments will be left with no alternative. It's different from controlled medication where there are generics, here there's no immediate substitute. The patient simply goes without.

The Accelerated Consolidation

I said in the previous article that we would see consolidation in the next 18 months. Now it's not 18 months — it's 12. And it won't be organic consolidation, it will be forced consolidation.

We will see three simultaneous movements:

1. Emergency Acquisitions: Capitalized companies buying struggling competitors at liquidation prices.
2. Defensive Mergers: Small players coming together to share the cost of approving new GMP-compliant suppliers.
3. Mass Closures: Companies that entered the market just for the "wave" will simply disappear.

It's exactly what happened with e-commerce after the 2001 bubble. Those with a foundation survived and grew. Those riding the wave, sank.

The Definitive Argument for National Regulation

There's a positive side to this whole crisis: it's the definitive, unquestionable, irrefutable argument for the urgency of regulating national cultivation in Brazil.

For years, the cultivation debate was stuck between "public safety," "treaty obligations," and "economic viability." Now we have a new and much stronger argument: strategic sovereignty in public health.

You can't have tens of thousands of patients dependent on imports when the source can be cut off by another country's political decision overnight. It's a matter of national security in public health.

The STJ, which recently postponed its decision on the issue to 2026, has just received the best possible case study as to why Brazil needs self-sufficiency. Self-sufficiency has ceased to be a competitive advantage or an economic debate; it has become a matter of national security in health, to ensure the continuity of treatment for thousands of patients. The decision is no longer "if," it's "when" and "how," the agenda goes through the recognition that external dependence compromises national health security.

The Window of Opportunity

Now, if you're reading this and only seeing crisis, you're looking at it wrong. Crises are the best times to separate those with strategic vision from those who are just reacting.

The companies that will dominate the Brazilian medicinal cannabis market in the next 10 years are those using this moment to:

● Urgently negotiate with GMP-certified suppliers in Canada, Colombia, and Israel
● Structure bulk API import for verticalization under RDC 327
● Build a real relationship with doctors (not just a contact list)
● Structure pharmaceutical-level compliance (not improvisation)
● Create a defensible niche (true clinical specialization)
 

When regulation consolidates — and it will — the Brazilian market can comfortably reach 2 million patients. But it will be dominated by well-structured companies, not by 500 facilitators doing the same thing.

The Music Is Stopping

In the previous article, I ended with the question: "when the music stops, will you have a chair to sit on?"

The music is stopping now. Faster than we expected. For a reason we couldn't control.

The companies that will have a chair are those already moving. Those waiting to "see how things unfold" will find that when things unfold, it will already be too late.

The natural selection of the Brazilian medicinal cannabis market has entered accelerated mode. And unlike biological evolution, here you can choose to adapt before the pressure forces you to.

The question now is: will you be proactive or reactive?